The Master on Minded

Paul Nicholls has had some bad luck with his jockeys in recent times. Both Ruby Walsh and Noel Fehily are injured which has hindered his plans.  Who can Nicholls find to replace such talent, well as it happens he can only call on the best Jockey probably ever to live! Yes, the one and only AP McCoy will ply his trade on the undoubtedly brilliant Master Minded this Saturday at Cheltenham in the Tingle Creek. He won brilliantly last time out and looked the horse he was 2 years ago. he flopped last time at Cheltenham but seems to have a spring back in his step now. The odds are decent too 1.93 looks excellent considering what he is up against. I cannot see this getting beat and so will have a maximum bet of 10 points on this one with the one and only AP on board.

1st Bet: Cheltenham 1.55 Grp 1 Chase

Master Minded to WIN

10 Points @ 1.93

Boxing now and Amir Khan seems to be doing all he can to build back his reputation since being KO'd by Prescott under the guidance of Freddy Roach. He now fights in Las Vegas against a real puncher in Maidana. This is the biggest test he has faced since Bredis Prescott and will make or break his career in the states. Though not technically the best Maidana can hit hard something Khan will be very wary of. I believe Khan will be to quick and powerful in the end though and should win within the twelve rounds. Betfair give odds of 2.14 for this to happen and I will place a mid-large size bet of 7 points to win.

2nd Bet: Khan Vs Maidana

Khan to win by KO, TKO or tech Decision

7 points @ 2.14

In the multiple section of the blog I am going to go a little left field so to speak. I am going to use  the under/over 2.5 goals markets in 4 games. Using statistics from head to heads between the teams I can use this market to create a 4 fold with very good odds. Here is the bet I have placed

3rd Bet: Under/Over 2.5 Goals 4 fold

Fulham v Sunderland -Under 2.5

Newcastle v Liverpool-Over 2.5

Everton v Wigan- Over 2.5

Tottenham v Chelsea- Over 2.5 

3 Points @ 10.93

Hopefully these will pay for a very expensive night tonight!!

Swing Low, Sweet Chariot

England's hopes of achieving rugby World Cup glory next summer looked to be slimmer than Peter Crouch's chicken legs a month ago. However, a pasting of the Aussies at Twickenham a fortnight ago means the echo of Sing Low Sweet chariot can be heard once more and English optimism is raised again. The Litmus test I feel will be on Saturday when the wounded World Champions South Africa arrive. The Springboks suffered an unprecedented loss last weekend against the Scots, who will feel a similar rejuvenation as England in many ways. South Africa are without some key players after some suspect 'supplements' were found in the bloodstream of Chilliboy Ralepelle and Bjorn Basson. This seems the perfect time to play the 'Boks and surely England will round off an impressive Autumn campaign with a convincing win. The handicap is -5.5 with odds on Betfair of 1.98.

International Rugby Union Handicap Betting

England VS South Africa

ENGLAND -5.5 @ 1.98

5 points to win

One of the great National hunt races this side of the new Year takes place on Saturday at Newbury. The Hennessy Gold Cup showcases some great Chasing talent many who have competed at Grade 1 level. The racegoers favorite Denman heads this field and no doubt there will be plenty of support for this one. He is however 8lbs higher than when winning this last year and at the prices I am going elsewhere. In such a competitive and large field I am always willing to punt on 2 selections Win and Place as the race pays 4 places. The 1st of these will be Cheltenham winner Burton Port. Having won at the festival this horse keeps getting better and at odds of 9.6 to win and 2.66 to place looks a solid alternative to Denman at the weights. My other selection is Neptune Collonges at a big price who on his best form has a big chance and will hopefully put in a big performance. He is handsomely priced at 17.5 to win and 4.4 to place with in form Noel Fehily on board.

Hennessy Gold Cup 

BURTON PORT to win and place @ 9.6 and 2.66

3 Points on Win, 3 points on Place

NEPTUNE COLLONGES to win and place @ 17.5 and 4.4

2 Points on WIN, 2 Points on Place

As has become customary on this blog we finish off with some sort of multiple bet for those who like small bets for large returns. And what better chance of winning a multiple do you have than with the NFL. Looking at the fixtures five teams stand out as having a high percentage chance of winning: these are the REDSKINS, GIANTS, RAVENS, TEXANS and the FALCONS. This makes a 5 point multiple which gives combined odds of 7.76.

NFL Five-Fold

REDSKINS

GIANTS

RAVENS

TEXANS

FALCONS all to win

5 Points @ 7.76

Hopefully some good picks there and back to winning ways.

Nicholls takes on the Imperial Empire

Until March last year Paul Nicholls had his hands super glued to the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Kauto Star and Denman looked to have had this contest locked down, and the odds represented this (5/4 and 9/4). Nigel Twiston- Davies had other ideas with Imperial Commander who landed the prize in fine style under the Stewardship of Paddy Brennan. Nicholls goes up against the Commander once again at Haydock. He brings with him a potential Gold Cup chance for the 2011  festival with Sir Alex Ferguson owned What A Friend. This horse has impressed after winning a Totesport Bowl at Aintree last seasons and straight after I backed him for this seasons Gold Cup at a whopping 42/1 (he is now 14/1). Bragging aside, this horse looks the real deal. This blog is all about good value and good chances, so backing Imperial Commader at 1.72 after a shocking run last time out would not represent this. What a Friend certainly has great value in comparison at 5.00 to win and is 1.91 to be in the top two. If Imperial doesn't fancy it What a Friend is without doubt the most likely to take advantage. I would advise putting a little more on the place so you will make a profit if it comes 2nd.

1st bet: Betfair Chase
What a Friend- Win and Place
2 points on WIN @ 5.00, 5 points on PLACE @ 1.91

Prizefighter in the form of the Super Featherwieghts hits Sky Sports Screens on Saturday. As a Lancashire Lad I have to go with 'The Mongolian Warrior', 39 year old Choi Tseveenpurev who has been based in Oldham for years. He began his career fighting in China, Mongolia and South Korea before emigrating to the exotic land of Oldham. He has sparred with Prince Naseem and Amir Khan, has an Iron Chin and has never been beaten on British soil. I'm backing Choi with both head and heart on Saturday, he is priced 3.4.

2nd Bet: Prizefighter Super Featherweights
Choi Tseveenpurev to Win outright
5 points @ 3.4

After some of my beloved International football enjoyed midweek its a return to league fixtures and what better way to kick off your weekend than a cheeky 5 fold win to boost the beer funds. I'm going for just a few games with a bigger stake. In this weeks accumulator Man Utd and Chelsea will be thrown in from the Premiership, Celtic and Rangers whisked in from the SPL and QPR sprinkled on top from the Championship to make a tasty looking bet. 8 Points is a big stake but the odds are not huge @ 5.96 as these selctions are all big favourites

3rd Bet: Football multiple
Chelsea
Man Utd
Rangers
Celtic
QPR

8 Points @ 5.96

Good luck on whatever your betting on this weekend, always bet responsibly (eg not on Audley Harrison)


Blog Profit/loss update

-57.36

And STILL the Heavyweight Champion of the World...............

A good game of baseball,  Andy Goode playing in an England Rugby Shirt ever again, Holloway fielding the same Blackpool team on Saturday as midweek, a funny female comedian ........... this is a list of things more likely to happen than Audley Harrison becoming the new Heavyweight Champion of the World on Saturday night! I'm not gonna spend any more time disrespecting Audley, he has done incredibly well to even be getting a shot at a World title when you look at his career, which at best can be described a shaky. The result is there. the value however is not. Haye has got the bookies running scared and his latest price on Betfair is 1.18 so you have to be a very rich man to be ploughing into that if you want a decent return. So the average punter needs to forget the 6.6 hope and pray for a miracle bet on Harrison, which some pundits are suggesting and turn the attention to round betting. Realistically speaking this fight should go no further than the 6th round, I believe Audley may last passed the third if he is cautious so my advice is to have a go on group round betting on the 4th-6th rounds. For Haye to win in rounds 4-6 you can get on Betfair 3.95 which is as good a price as your likely to find.

1st Bet: Haye VS Harrison Grouped round Betting
Haye to win in rounds 4-6
6 points @ 3.95


Last weekend's test matches showed that England are capable of competing with  the best of the Southern Hemisphere. New Zealand should have had a man sent off and a slow start cost England a shock victory. England can be buoyed by a good second half and should take some confidence into this weekends clash against Australia. The Wallabies were efficient but by no means brilliant against the Welsh and I believe England, provided they start well and cut down on penalties, will overcome the men from Down Under. They are attractively priced at 2.72 currently on Betfair which is definitely worth a punt an even looking tie, especially at Twickenham.

2nd Bet: Test Match Rugby- England VS Australia
England to win
6 points @ 2.72

Accumulators are every football fans favorite. Small stakes for big wins. They should however come with a Government health warning. Everyone knows a tale about someones friends brother who put on a quid on 12 teams to win £10,000 11 teams won but Livingston drew with Cowdenbeath, Sound Familiar? The best way I have found to do this kind of bet is to spend more and allow yourself to get one wrong. My weekly football patent consists of 8 teams win a sevenfold costing me £8 rather than £1, meaning that if one doesn't come through I will get back roughly a 10th of my original win. Here is my bet for the football this weekend.

3RD BET: Sevenfold

Newcastle
Tottenham
Chelsea
Arsenal
Rangers
Celtic
Ipswich
Reading
8 GAMES in a SEVENFOLD
1Point per line
8 Points staked
total return=234.11
1 wrong return = 22.68-39.98



Blog Profit/Loss Update
-53.68

back over obstacles

The National Hunt season returns, and if like me, you prefer the thrill of hurdles it is an exciting time. So get ready for exciting days ahead such as Cheltenham Gold Cup, World Hurdles and of course The Grand National. To kick off the blog this week I'm going to look at the NH racing at Ascot. Paul Nicholls has brought a strong string to this one and after reading his entry on Betfair he seems to reckon  Take the breeze is his best chance of the day. He is priced 8.2 on the exchange site to win and is 2.76 to place. As this is a conpetative race I am going to put more on the place than the win to, hopefully, guarantee good return even if it only places.

1st bet: 3.40 Ascot
Take the Breeze Win and Place
3 Point on Win @ 8.2
7 Point on Place @ 2.76

Britain hosts some NFL on Sunday. Yes, Wembley, home of football will welcome the American equivalent in all its splendor. The 49'ers take on the Broncos, for the NFL literate this is not a classic clash but worth a watch nevertheless. It is also evenly priced and for me the 49'ers are good value as the broncos look less than average having just been thrashed at home by the Oakland Raiders.

2nd bet: NFL in London
San Fransisco 49'ers to win
5 points @ 1.83

I've saved the best until last. This for me is the bet of the weekend. In the four nations rugby league it is crunch time for England, they need a win. However, if you follow England RL you will know this means we will get beat, and the likelihood is it will be a heavy beating particularly as the Aussies are so very very strong. I'm expecting a tight opening twenty minutes, however  the more England chase the more the aussies will exploit. Australia are 1.98 with a -18.5 handicap and I really like the look of this one- GET ON!!

3rd bet: Four Nations Rugby League
Australia -18.5
5 points @ 1.98

Lets hope these can reduce the deficit.......

Blog profit/loss update
-72.20

Down the Rowley Mile

Last week I predicted that the International break would be boring, and it did not disappoint. This week (thankfully) the Barclays Premier League returns. Also their is some exciting Horse Racing going on over at Newmarket and its round two of the Heineken Cup. Throw in an NFL accumulator and we're ready for an exciting weekends betting.

So we will start with this weekends football action. After losing two games on the trot Arsenal will look to bounce back to form at the Emirates on Saturday when they welcome Birmingham. Since returning to the Premier league Birmingham have done brilliantly and in truth look as though they are on their way to becoming an established top flight side. This is mainly due to the fact that their home form has been so good, this cannot be said however for their away form which has been that of a relegation candidate. This leads me to conclude that Arsenal will cast aside their poor form and get back to winning ways on Saturday. They are a short price to do so, however so I will put them in what could be described as a 'Big 3' Treble with Man Utd who entertain West Brom and Chelsea who are a good price away at Villa. This enhances the odds to 3.06 which on paper looks good, I will place a cautious 5 points on this to come through.

1st Bet: premier League Treble

Man Utd to Win 

Arsenal to win

Chelsae to win

5 points on Treble @ 3.06 

2 year old Group 1 action from Newmarket is next. It is the Dewhurst Stakes which is for 2 year old thoroughbreds and fillies. In reality their are only 3 who can realistically be put up as the potential winner of this race, they are Frankel, Saamid and Dream Ahead it is the latter which I believe will prevail. Frankel is priced up at 1.78 which is too short for a decent looking renewal. Dream Ahead is 4.2 on Betfair and like Frankel and Saamid has won all his races so far, so as they say in Boxing "Somebodies '0' has to go". Dream Ahead is also 1.72 for the place which is what we can at least expect. I am confident of a place so will put more on the place than the win. I will stake 2 points on the win and 5 on the place.

2nd Bet: Dewhurst Stakes 

Dream Ahead Win and Place

2 points to Win @ 4.2 and 5 points on Place @ 1.72

Heineken Cup action continues and if anything was learn't last week it was that home advantage is extremely important. 10/12 Home teams prevailed last week, and the bookmakers have priced the games accordingly. This means their maybe some value on the handicaps for away sides. In many of this weeks fixtures the bookies have been a little generous when numbering up the handicaps. For a starter the outstanding team of last week was Llanelli Scarlets who beat Perpignan 43-34. They have been given +12away to Leicester which is a little much all things considered. Also Northampton were not brilliant last week and never troubled the -14 handicap. However they play Edinburgh up in Scotland who were not exactly World beaters against Glasgow in the opening round. -4 looks a good bet for the Saints who should cement themselves as group favorites. Both are 1.91 but when put in a double  gives odds of 3.64.

3rd bet: Heineken Cup Double

Llanelli +12 to win

Northampton -4 to win

5 points on Double @ 3.64

To finish this week off some Sunday night NFL will round off your weekend, to make it interesting throw a 7 fold accumulator. This should include the Texans, Saints, Packers, Steelers, Giants, Bears and the Jets

4th Bet: NFL accumulator

Texans

Saints

Packers

Steelers 

Giants

Bears 

Jets

3 points on accumulator @ 8.19

Blog Profit/Loss Update

-52.20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

International weekend zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Waking up on Friday morning is usually welcomed by the feeling of anticipation and excitement for the weekend and all that comes with it. Anticipation of popping down to the bookmakers for a cheeky accumulator and deliberating whether or not Cardiff are a good shout away at Doncaster or whether Arsenal are a reliable 'banker' at home to Bolton. That is until you remember it is international weekend and that feeling is replaced by sheer disappointment. This week I will be keeping well away from football, as apart from anything else I couldn't give a rats arse if Greece beat Latvia or if Ukraine will be too good for Canada. So the order of play will be Heineken Cup Rugby, NFL week 5 and Prizefighter Boxing.

The Heineken cup returns tonight with Northampton at home to French outfit Castres. Northampton lie second in the Aviva Premiership whilst Castres have struggled recently in the Top 14. Add to this the fact that French teams are notoriously bad on the road in Europe, Northampton are worthy favourites and I am picking them to pile some points on Castres tonight. The handicap is -14 on Northampton, I believe they will win by more than this, possibly a lot more.

1st Bet: Heineken Cup Handicap Bet

Northampton -14

7 Points @ 10/11

It is the 5th round of what looks to be a very open NFL competition, which has seen already both last years Superbowl teams lose. There have been a few surprise teams which look a lot stronger then last year. One of those is the Chicago Bears who have found there feet in the NFC North and are a real challenge to Green Bay. They are away in Carolina to face a Panthers side are 0-4, however the Bears are 20/21 to win the game, a nice price going on form so I'm gonna get stuck in.

2nd Bet: NFL game bet

Chicago Bears to win

7 Points @ 20/21

Sky's Prizefighter has seen some very entertaining evenings and has been a big success. The Twenty20 style revamp of the sport produces exciting fights with plenty of Knockouts. Its the return of the heavyweights tonight and for me there is only two fighters who can win the £32,000 prize, Michael Sprott and Matt Skelton and this is evident in the prices. Sprott is marginal favorite 13/8 and  Skelton is 2/1, my money will be on Skelton who looks to revive his career on Saturday night and will relish the format of Prizefighter. 

3rd Bet: Prizefighter Winner

Matt Skelton to win overall

6 Points @ 2/1

Happy Punting everyone and I will return next weekend, might need waking up after watching Wales v Bulgaria......

Blog Profit/ loss Update

-45.85