back over obstacles

The National Hunt season returns, and if like me, you prefer the thrill of hurdles it is an exciting time. So get ready for exciting days ahead such as Cheltenham Gold Cup, World Hurdles and of course The Grand National. To kick off the blog this week I'm going to look at the NH racing at Ascot. Paul Nicholls has brought a strong string to this one and after reading his entry on Betfair he seems to reckon  Take the breeze is his best chance of the day. He is priced 8.2 on the exchange site to win and is 2.76 to place. As this is a conpetative race I am going to put more on the place than the win to, hopefully, guarantee good return even if it only places.

1st bet: 3.40 Ascot
Take the Breeze Win and Place
3 Point on Win @ 8.2
7 Point on Place @ 2.76

Britain hosts some NFL on Sunday. Yes, Wembley, home of football will welcome the American equivalent in all its splendor. The 49'ers take on the Broncos, for the NFL literate this is not a classic clash but worth a watch nevertheless. It is also evenly priced and for me the 49'ers are good value as the broncos look less than average having just been thrashed at home by the Oakland Raiders.

2nd bet: NFL in London
San Fransisco 49'ers to win
5 points @ 1.83

I've saved the best until last. This for me is the bet of the weekend. In the four nations rugby league it is crunch time for England, they need a win. However, if you follow England RL you will know this means we will get beat, and the likelihood is it will be a heavy beating particularly as the Aussies are so very very strong. I'm expecting a tight opening twenty minutes, however  the more England chase the more the aussies will exploit. Australia are 1.98 with a -18.5 handicap and I really like the look of this one- GET ON!!

3rd bet: Four Nations Rugby League
Australia -18.5
5 points @ 1.98

Lets hope these can reduce the deficit.......

Blog profit/loss update
-72.20

Down the Rowley Mile

Last week I predicted that the International break would be boring, and it did not disappoint. This week (thankfully) the Barclays Premier League returns. Also their is some exciting Horse Racing going on over at Newmarket and its round two of the Heineken Cup. Throw in an NFL accumulator and we're ready for an exciting weekends betting.

So we will start with this weekends football action. After losing two games on the trot Arsenal will look to bounce back to form at the Emirates on Saturday when they welcome Birmingham. Since returning to the Premier league Birmingham have done brilliantly and in truth look as though they are on their way to becoming an established top flight side. This is mainly due to the fact that their home form has been so good, this cannot be said however for their away form which has been that of a relegation candidate. This leads me to conclude that Arsenal will cast aside their poor form and get back to winning ways on Saturday. They are a short price to do so, however so I will put them in what could be described as a 'Big 3' Treble with Man Utd who entertain West Brom and Chelsea who are a good price away at Villa. This enhances the odds to 3.06 which on paper looks good, I will place a cautious 5 points on this to come through.

1st Bet: premier League Treble

Man Utd to Win 

Arsenal to win

Chelsae to win

5 points on Treble @ 3.06 

2 year old Group 1 action from Newmarket is next. It is the Dewhurst Stakes which is for 2 year old thoroughbreds and fillies. In reality their are only 3 who can realistically be put up as the potential winner of this race, they are Frankel, Saamid and Dream Ahead it is the latter which I believe will prevail. Frankel is priced up at 1.78 which is too short for a decent looking renewal. Dream Ahead is 4.2 on Betfair and like Frankel and Saamid has won all his races so far, so as they say in Boxing "Somebodies '0' has to go". Dream Ahead is also 1.72 for the place which is what we can at least expect. I am confident of a place so will put more on the place than the win. I will stake 2 points on the win and 5 on the place.

2nd Bet: Dewhurst Stakes 

Dream Ahead Win and Place

2 points to Win @ 4.2 and 5 points on Place @ 1.72

Heineken Cup action continues and if anything was learn't last week it was that home advantage is extremely important. 10/12 Home teams prevailed last week, and the bookmakers have priced the games accordingly. This means their maybe some value on the handicaps for away sides. In many of this weeks fixtures the bookies have been a little generous when numbering up the handicaps. For a starter the outstanding team of last week was Llanelli Scarlets who beat Perpignan 43-34. They have been given +12away to Leicester which is a little much all things considered. Also Northampton were not brilliant last week and never troubled the -14 handicap. However they play Edinburgh up in Scotland who were not exactly World beaters against Glasgow in the opening round. -4 looks a good bet for the Saints who should cement themselves as group favorites. Both are 1.91 but when put in a double  gives odds of 3.64.

3rd bet: Heineken Cup Double

Llanelli +12 to win

Northampton -4 to win

5 points on Double @ 3.64

To finish this week off some Sunday night NFL will round off your weekend, to make it interesting throw a 7 fold accumulator. This should include the Texans, Saints, Packers, Steelers, Giants, Bears and the Jets

4th Bet: NFL accumulator

Texans

Saints

Packers

Steelers 

Giants

Bears 

Jets

3 points on accumulator @ 8.19

Blog Profit/Loss Update

-52.20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

International weekend zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Waking up on Friday morning is usually welcomed by the feeling of anticipation and excitement for the weekend and all that comes with it. Anticipation of popping down to the bookmakers for a cheeky accumulator and deliberating whether or not Cardiff are a good shout away at Doncaster or whether Arsenal are a reliable 'banker' at home to Bolton. That is until you remember it is international weekend and that feeling is replaced by sheer disappointment. This week I will be keeping well away from football, as apart from anything else I couldn't give a rats arse if Greece beat Latvia or if Ukraine will be too good for Canada. So the order of play will be Heineken Cup Rugby, NFL week 5 and Prizefighter Boxing.

The Heineken cup returns tonight with Northampton at home to French outfit Castres. Northampton lie second in the Aviva Premiership whilst Castres have struggled recently in the Top 14. Add to this the fact that French teams are notoriously bad on the road in Europe, Northampton are worthy favourites and I am picking them to pile some points on Castres tonight. The handicap is -14 on Northampton, I believe they will win by more than this, possibly a lot more.

1st Bet: Heineken Cup Handicap Bet

Northampton -14

7 Points @ 10/11

It is the 5th round of what looks to be a very open NFL competition, which has seen already both last years Superbowl teams lose. There have been a few surprise teams which look a lot stronger then last year. One of those is the Chicago Bears who have found there feet in the NFC North and are a real challenge to Green Bay. They are away in Carolina to face a Panthers side are 0-4, however the Bears are 20/21 to win the game, a nice price going on form so I'm gonna get stuck in.

2nd Bet: NFL game bet

Chicago Bears to win

7 Points @ 20/21

Sky's Prizefighter has seen some very entertaining evenings and has been a big success. The Twenty20 style revamp of the sport produces exciting fights with plenty of Knockouts. Its the return of the heavyweights tonight and for me there is only two fighters who can win the £32,000 prize, Michael Sprott and Matt Skelton and this is evident in the prices. Sprott is marginal favorite 13/8 and  Skelton is 2/1, my money will be on Skelton who looks to revive his career on Saturday night and will relish the format of Prizefighter. 

3rd Bet: Prizefighter Winner

Matt Skelton to win overall

6 Points @ 2/1

Happy Punting everyone and I will return next weekend, might need waking up after watching Wales v Bulgaria......

Blog Profit/ loss Update

-45.85 

 

Bonjour Longchamp! un vainqueur s'il vous plaît

The racing calender turns its attention across the channel to Longchamp for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Granted this is not the strongest renewal. It lacks the depth and class which we have become accustomed to, last year was a particularly good race and saw Sea of the Stars, arguably the best ever winner of the race storm home from a seemingly impossible position. Sea of the Stars was favourite that day and duly obliged, this year the 7/2 favourite  is Behkabad which to me looks too short. Workforce is 2nd favourite, undoubtedly a good horse given its a derby winner, it looks a little inconsistent for me to put her up in a race like this especially at 11/2. The value for me is with Aidan O'Brien's Cape Blanco. Blanco ticks most of the boxes for an arc winner and if there is a bit of pace in the ground will have an outstanding chance. She is priced around 11/1 so is well worth and Each Way shout and should go close.

1st Bet: Arc De Triomph

Cape Blanco @ 12.00

3.5 Points E/W- 7 point bet

Sunday sees an all London clash at the bridge when Arsenal travel west to play Chelsea in the highlight of the weeks Premier League action. Chelsea have a fantastic  recent record against the gunners and last weeks form can be chalked off as both teams won convincingly in the Champions League midweek. Fabregas wont play on Sunday which means Arsenal may struggle to contain Chelsea's robust midfield. Drogba is also due a big game after going missing at Eastlands and subsequently being taken off. Chelsea are 8/11 against Arsenal and I will put it in a 4 fold along with Man City, Huddersfield and Rangers to give me odds of 6.38.

2nd Bet: Football 4 fold

Chelsea

Man City

Huddersfield

Rangers

3 Points @ 6.38

The Ryder cup is now under way, but as of today (Friday) not much has happened. The Europeans marginally look to be handling the conditions better and in my opinion will win it with a couple of points in hand. This will be the first 'major' trophy Monty has won, so he best enjoy it as it is almost definitely the only one! Europe are 8/11 to win so will up the usual stake for this kind of bet to 8 points.

3rd Bet: Ryder Cup Outright

Europe to win overall

8 points on the win @ 1.73

Well I'm off to the Grand Final at Old Trafford. Enjoy your weekend and hope we can get into some profit after this weekend!

Blog Profit/Loss update

-41.69